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A few weeks ago I picked the Giants to go to the Super Bowl. People thought I was nuts. Even more nuts, I am now changing that pick. I think the Niners will win. Here's why.
Both teams have a strong defense. Both teams have a run based offense that goes successfully to the pass when needed. Both teams just beat a recent Super Bowl Champ. The key difference seems to be that the Giants have been there before. That and the Giants are red hot.
So why the Niners? The Niners secondary is awesome. Nothing comes easy against them. While Eli Manning has indeed finally become an elite quarterback, as I've been watching, it seems to me that when they go to the pass they have been often succeeding by the skin of their teeth. They rely on Manning making great plays, threading the needle. This has been against teams with weak secondaries, though. This week it's going to be tough, very tough.
Green Bay's running backs had success last week. Except they kept fumbling. And of course the receivers dropped numerous passes. So I think, unless Smith regresses, the Niners will move the ball more effectively than the Giants. If they avoid turnovers, they win in a close, low scoring game.
Patriots vs Ravens
Ravens crushed the Pats 2 years ago in Foxborough in the wild card game. I watched the replay today. Funny thing was, Brady mostly had plenty of time to throw. Problem was no one was open. That day, they had Randy Moss and rookie former quaterback Edelman as their receivers. Kevin Falk was their main running back, and he is suited more to third down back. And Ben Watson was the talented tight end who never figured the NFL out. Welker was out with an injury.
No question the Pats have significantly more weapons this year. Welker and Branch, and the best tight end combo in the history of the game. The running backs are better. The O line is as good, maybe a little better. If Brady gets time again, he'll move the ball.
Will the Ravens move it? Hard to say. During the year, pretty much everyone moved it on the Pats. The defense is coming into its own, though, and Flacco is, well, Flacco. I expect the Ravens will move the ball and mostly settle for field goals. It won't be enough.
I'm already freaking out about Sunday. Major Giants fan here. Anything could happen but the logic I've been listening to from people who pcik San Fran just doesn't jive for me (although I could just be in denial).
First...home field advantage...big whoop. We just crushed Green Bay, a better team than San fran IMO on their home turf. Second...Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Tuck and Osi Umenyiora. Sack attack. Smith is shaking in his cleets right now. Third...Eli Manning. He's a freakin rock star. IMO he's grown into a poised and confident team leader. He wasn't always like that but he is now. I used to hlod my breath when he was under high pressure situations but not anymore. Alex Smith...not in the same league. Fourth...Nicks, Bradsahw, Cruz, Manningham
The Giants weren't as strong a team when they played the 49ers in week 10 but even then they beat them statistically...in every category. Passing, rushing & receiving. The Giants had a meltdown in the 4th quarter...this is true but again, they were a different team. I don't see that happening on Sunday.
I just don't see the Baltimore D stopping Brady at the level he's playing right now. Also, the Patriot defense has gotten progressively stingier over the past few weeks. Pats go to the big show, again.
NFC is much tougher to call. Hard to know which Giants team will show up. If they play like last week, they win again. But if the SF rush consistently gets through the Giant's o-line and get their hands on Eli, I'd give the edge to SF. The real wild card is Alex Smith, as we find out if he can replicate that insane performance from last week. If I had to guess, I'd say the Niners have enough to tip the scales in their favor.
Hard to argue with anything you say Ryan, because it's well thought out.
I think Eli being there before and Smith having not is big though. And I think we (yes, a huge NYG fan here) can play man-to-man on the Niners' receivers, even Crabtree. And when the Giants can play man-to-man, ho boy, look out...
Will their quick, ball-hawking defense give Eli problems? Yeah, I think so. But if this game is won on defense I think it will be Big Blue that makes the big plays to do it.
The other game? No contest. Ravens are the most talented team in the league, man for man. And I've been trying to figure out why they've sucked in a lot of games this year. And I spent an early rounder on Flacco in my fantasy league. Won the SB anyway, no thanks to him.
Rematch - Giants / Pats. And the same outcome... (0:
Are you kidding? Aaron Rodgers was the leading rusher for Green Bay! I don't care if you run for a hundred yards every time before a fumble, that can't be called success in any sense of the word.
As for the next weekend, I agree with pretty much everyone that it's going to be Patriots at the AFC side of things. If not for nothing else, just to piss me off. That's how the world seems to work.
NFC will be the interesting game. I'm rooting for the Niners, but I'm having a hard time believing because of the way they got to the championship game. Saints presented them chances on a silver platter all game long and the Niners still had trouble finishing the deal. Sure, that made for a very exciting last 5 minutes of the game, but didn't fill me with confidence.
Giants is a good football team but they didn't as much win the game as GB lost it. GB being my temporary favourite team, I was obviously rooting for them but after watching the game I'm just glad they didn't win. They played abysmally, especially considering their regular season record. They didn't deserve to win and at the end I was glad that Giants made them pay for their performance even if the officials tried to give the Packers a little hand during the first half. If I was a Packer, I'd return my salary and apologize profusely. Heck, if I was a Packer, I could afford it.
I think the Niners D is matched up pretty even with Giants O, but it's the Niners O that worries me. If their production is as low as the Saints game, they don't have a chance. I expect it'll be a close game anyway, should be interesting. (The NFC games tend to be more often than the AFC games anyway.)
So which one I'm picking? I think it's a coin toss, but I think Giants have the edge.
But then again, I'm Finnish. What do I know about american football? Nothing! Leave me alone, will you...
The act of writing is a quest to put a hundred thousand words to a cunning order. - Douglas Adams
I watched the game, Henrik. The line opened holes and Green Bay's runners, primarily Grant, found them. The fumbles were not entirely luck, however. The Giants were effective at forcing fumbles. From what I saw, Gore is going to be effective enough for the Giants to move the ball.
The Giants are strong at creating turnovers. If they do, they'll win. But if not, Niners will prevail.
One other thing: Parcells used to say you are what your record says you are. I like the Giants, I predicted a few weeks ago they would get to the bowl, I predicted they would beat GB. But they were 9 and 7, and asking them to play strong 3 games in a row is stretching the odds. So Niners are my pick!
The fumbles were not entirely luck, however. The Giants were effective at forcing fumbles.
Yes, I hope they keep it up. It makes for entertaining football.
Just to clarify, I've only been into american football for the past year or so, so I probably don't see everything that's there to be seen yet. That's why my allegiances to the teams are very preliminary and I'm mainly hoping for very excellent games to come.
The only more permanent thing is that a few people have convinced me to root against the evil empire that is the New England Patriots. (Sorry Patriots fans, nothing personal.)
The act of writing is a quest to put a hundred thousand words to a cunning order. - Douglas Adams
You know your team is number one when everyone roots against your team, even in Finland! Man, as a life long Patriots fan, suffering through all those embarrasing years, never thought I'd live to see that. Pretty cool. Keep hatin'!!!
I think Balitimore has a better chance than anyone is giving them credit. I watched Pittsburgh beat the pats this year, I expect the Ravens to mimic that game plan. Run the rock, control the clock, and keep Brady on the sidelines. Pitt also played close man coverage, every receiver was having their route disrupted at the line of scrimmage and it through Brady off. Baltimore will have success running. I just think Flacco will fuck it up somehow. This is his third AFC championship and I'll bet the pressure is on. I still like Pats, by three, but I think this will be a tough game.
Giants and San Fran i think will be low scoring. If it stays that way, San Fran has a chance, but they won't repeat the offensive performance they had last week against Giants D. I'm gonna Say it'll be a Pats vs Giants re-match in the Superbowl.
Since we don't have any shirts, how about you go to the real Grand Avenue in Queens and hold a sign up that says "I'm from Los Angeles and I'm a Patriots fan?"... and to really get the maximum experience you should do it at 3:30 in the morning...
Since we don't have any shirts, how about you go to the real Grand Avenue in Queens and hold a sign up that says "I'm from Los Angeles and I'm a Patriots fan?"... and to really get the maximum experience you should do it at 3:30 in the morning...
(0:
I'm thinking an iron on t-shirt is way cheaper than airfare, pal! I'd have a shirt made with the CLone Wife poster on it, just for you!
Or....
Maybe I can get Janet to go down to Grand Avenue in the wee hours. Yeah! She can hold up a picture of me in that shirt! LOL!
Hmmm, the iron on thing might work better. This bet is definitely a work in progress. It needs a few drafts!
E.D.
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