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I think Pia meant she could tell if the writer was up to scratch from page one, which is a fair shout. If page one is written poorly, you would imagine the rest is gonna follow suit. Poorly means the obvious, but includes tone, atmosphere and world building. Page one has to have something, if not all three, to keep reader interest.
I just read through all of the posts in this thread and I wanted to say the following, as an aspiring screenwriter:
While I agree that you can determine CERTAIN things from page one, there is no way to come to a conclusion on anything. What if the entire first page is as establishing shot, followed by a series of slug lines, setting up something? You'd be able to determine the writer's ability to describe a scene, but that's all, what if they're dialogue is crap but their "showing" is awesome? The same could be said if the first page is sharp dialogue but little else.
I went back and looked at two of my screenplays that I've been focusing on recently, trying to decide if the first page is interesting, or at least is something that paints a picture worth looking at. But interest is subjective. What if the reader doesn't like the picture that is being painted, but the process of painting it is done very well?
It's just not a great realization when I read things like this. I want my stuff to get out there and read, but knowing there are people who will throw it away after the first page is quite discouraging.
I'd say the first 3-5 pages would give a more complete indication on what's to come.