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SimplyScripts Screenwriting Discussion Board    Discussion of...     General Chat  ›  Journal of the Plague Year Moderators: bert
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Dustin
Posted: March 30th, 2020, 5:22am Report to Moderator
Of The Ancients


Action speaks louder...

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Quoted from Scar Tissue Films
This is one of the biggest problems :

https://www.independentsentine.....ed-from-it-directly/

According to the Professor, only 12% of the Italians who have died have actually died of the coronavirus.

The problem is Governments are saying that anyone who dies and has the virus are being listed as dying OF the virus, massively inflating the mortality rate. The actual reality is their deaths are from other things, like heart failure.

In Germany where they are far more specific, the mortality rate is a paltry 0.3%.

Some vaguely interesting thoughts on what will change in the future.
Including the complete eradication of the working class, and a move to people becoming professional consumers, rather than producers ie people entirely dependent on the State for their money. Always amazing how the State gets more powerful whenever there's a crisis.

https://www.esquire.com/uk/lif.....4Ow0HU-LAk_W5ehSzlqc


Two great articles, thanks for sharing.


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Dustin
Posted: March 30th, 2020, 5:33am Report to Moderator
Of The Ancients


Action speaks louder...

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Quoted from Scar Tissue Films

In Germany where they are far more specific, the mortality rate is a paltry 0.3%.



Swine Flu killed 0.2%

It's interesting how this one is being deliberately blown out of proportion. We're being locked down for reasons other than a virus and this is clear.

I had to queue to get into a large supermarket yesterday. People out in their masks and shit, like they're enjoying it. The constant media barrage. The displays of sick people on TV. The stories of those who died. The vilification of those who dare question events.

I'm listening to the radio and it's making me feel ill. People are calling up actually crying. Time for Trap FM I think.


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Scar Tissue Films
Posted: March 30th, 2020, 8:23am Report to Moderator
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The Imperial College, the same source as the original overestimation of the problem, has released an economic impact report and it recommends a Carbon Tax to claw back the money Governments are spending.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196514/the-economic-impact-coronavirus-analysis-from/

The world is going to be a very different place when this is all over. A lot of the freedoms we've enjoyed, are going to be gone imo.
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Dustin
Posted: March 30th, 2020, 11:02am Report to Moderator
Of The Ancients


Action speaks louder...

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Just gave my GF a lift to pick up a prescription and a black couple who pulled in behind me were questioned by police due to the car being driven by an older lady whilst registered to a younger one. Three police officers, no social distancing observance, no masks, no gloves.

I was a little worried as I stink of weed as I always do. Usually, though, I don't have to worry about being pulled over. I rarely speed and I drive a newish car. Which is another thing that's pissing me off. I'm paying HP for the car and I've paid for a year's insurance. Will I get a refund? Luckily, the police weren't interested in me on this occasion... but, yeah, going out is a little scary.


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eldave1
Posted: March 30th, 2020, 12:14pm Report to Moderator
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Quoted from Scar Tissue Films
This is one of the biggest problems :

https://www.independentsentine.....ed-from-it-directly/

According to the Professor, only 12% of the Italians who have died have actually died of the coronavirus.

The problem is Governments are saying that anyone who dies and has the virus are being listed as dying OF the virus, massively inflating the mortality rate. The actual reality is their deaths are from other things, like heart failure.

In Germany where they are far more specific, the mortality rate is a paltry 0.3%.

Some vaguely interesting thoughts on what will change in the future.
Including the complete eradication of the working class, and a move to people becoming professional consumers, rather than producers ie people entirely dependent on the State for their money. Always amazing how the State gets more powerful whenever there's a crisis.

https://www.esquire.com/uk/lif.....4Ow0HU-LAk_W5ehSzlqc


One of the biggest problems. I dunno.

Surely the Italy death rates are off the charts compared to other countries and there either some demographic issues there are errors in causality. But also keep in mind that when they are saying that the virus patient died from an underlying condition, they are not saying they would have died this week. They are merely saying their underlying condition did not enable them to survive the virus. They may have lived a good while had they not got the virus.

But just eliminate Italy from the numbers. Pretend there are zero cases and zero deaths.

Then what...? How would this change our decision making? Hospitals are still over run everywhere else.  Basically because of deaths and treatments that should have naturally occurred over a longer period of time are being crammed into a health system that was not built to handle it.  

The number of patients being treated is real and the health system being over run is a fact. Regardless of whether COVID is a direct cause of death or an indirect one.

So - what do you do? IN my view, there are three macro level choices.

1. What we're doing now. Try to save as many people as possible by slowing the virus to the extent that the health system can sustain treatment.

2. Just let people die. Keep the economy going - business as usual and provide no treatment to COVID patients. Basically, regardless of their medical state, they would not be allowed into medical facilities. They would be told just to go home, we don't treat COVID (kind of like how we use to handle leprosy).   Basically here we're just going to cram deaths that would have naturally happened over a longer period into a much shorter one - but we're not going to let them burden the medical system.

3. A triage approach - e.g. 70 and over or anyone with major medical conditions (COPD, diabetes, etc.) told to just go home, only treat the most likely survivors.Tell everyone in the non-treatable categories to stay home unless they just want to roll the dice and tell everyone else business as usual.

Arguments could be made for each scenario. Personally, I'm still a fan of approach 1, but that view may change if we can't get our hands around this. But looking at the numbers, death rates, etc. etc. isn't really needed to assess the situation. All you have to is look at images of the hospitals and morgues to know that this is an m-fer.

Which option to you prefer or do you think there are additional ones?  








My Scripts can all be seen here:

http://dlambertson.wix.com/scripts
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eldave1
Posted: March 30th, 2020, 12:39pm Report to Moderator
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Quoted from Dustin
The economy only appeared to be in good shape due to the massive and clearly unsustainable deficit - which in time generates trillions of dollars in national debts. The entire global economy is based off the US dollar and has been since after WW2. In short, this means, the US controls the world economy, the very GDP. So, is it any wonder, their citizens are generally better off than anywhere else in the world? Even here. It was Great Britain that controlled the economy beforehand and is actually what we were fighting Germany for during WW2. Then, it was oil. WW2 helped the world transition from the £ to the $ and conveniently killed off a workforce that wasn't needed anymore due to oil negating their need for a job.

I can't see how the current model will continue after this. Reports from China are sketchy and really depend where the report comes from. I've seen actual sneaked out footage which shows strict measures still in place. Flattening a curve doesn't mean people are getting better or that the virus has gone away. It just means that if 500 people died yesterday, then 500 people also died today.


Agree with some of this. I might change the problem statement (pre-virus of course) slightly to:

The economy was in good shape but is at risk due to the massive and clearly unsustainable deficit - which in time generates trillions of dollars in national debts

Our (US) highest debt to GDP ratio was after WWII - about 110% of GDP.  But through rational tax and spending policies we steadily lowered that to around 30% of GDP by 1980. It was a remarkable achievement and was still declining as Carter left office.

Then Reagan happened and the debt started racing up. Massive tax cuts combined with increases in government spending.

Clinton reduced that cycle. Debt as a percent of GDP actually decreased during his two terms.

Then Bush Jr happened at it fokign skyrocketed. Massive tax cuts along with two multi-trillion dollar wars and the largest medicare expansion in 40 years sent the debt death curve rocketing back up to historic levels. Obama didn't change that arc and Trump came in and just added fuel to his fire with his tax cuts along with increases in government spending.

We are not back near our peak, post WW II levels and certainly will be there with the money spent on the virus.  

There does need to be a rational way to address this. If we want to have a strong economy in the future, we have to start paying down the debt. It poses a far greater threat to the economy than the virus.






My Scripts can all be seen here:

http://dlambertson.wix.com/scripts
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Dustin
Posted: March 30th, 2020, 2:33pm Report to Moderator
Of The Ancients


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On another note, has anyone ever slow-cooked a steak? Just did one for three hours and it's amazingly tender. No need for blood. Just rub in some salt and pepper put it in the slow cooker and leave it for a few hours.


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Dreamscale
Posted: March 30th, 2020, 2:37pm Report to Moderator
Of The Ancients


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Quoted from Dustin
On another note, has anyone ever slow-cooked a steak? Just did one for three hours and it's amazingly tender. No need for blood. Just rub in some salt and pepper put it in the slow cooker and leave it for a few hours.


I smoke steaks on my Kamado Grill and they turn out amazing.

Never done one in a slow cooker, although I do love making filets with golden mushroom soup, mushrooms, and wine in a slow cooker, but that turns into stew, we eat over rice.


To ski or not to ski...that's not even a question.
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eldave1
Posted: March 30th, 2020, 4:09pm Report to Moderator
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Getting hungry


My Scripts can all be seen here:

http://dlambertson.wix.com/scripts
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Dreamscale
Posted: March 30th, 2020, 4:50pm Report to Moderator
Of The Ancients


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Quoted from eldave1
Getting hungry


See if this helps with your hunger...

I'm starting a homemade lobster bisque right now.  The stock will take several hours, so wanted to get it going.

YUMBO!!!!


To ski or not to ski...that's not even a question.
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eldave1
Posted: March 30th, 2020, 4:56pm Report to Moderator
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Quoted from Dreamscale


See if this helps with your hunger...

I'm starting a homemade lobster bisque right now.  The stock will take several hours, so wanted to get it going.

YUMBO!!!!


I just had Del Taco

But you've inspired me - going to spend the rest of the week barbecuing


My Scripts can all be seen here:

http://dlambertson.wix.com/scripts
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Dreamscale
Posted: March 30th, 2020, 5:19pm Report to Moderator
Of The Ancients


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Quoted from eldave1


I just had Del Taco

But you've inspired me - going to spend the rest of the week barbecuing


Way to go, Dave!  Do it up BIG!!



To ski or not to ski...that's not even a question.
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eldave1
Posted: March 30th, 2020, 5:19pm Report to Moderator
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Quoted from Dreamscale


Way to go, Dave!  Do it up BIG!!



I am! Steaks and shrooms tomorrow


My Scripts can all be seen here:

http://dlambertson.wix.com/scripts
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LC
Posted: March 30th, 2020, 5:43pm Report to Moderator
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Wow, I never thought I'd see the guys on SS sharing cooking tips and recipes.

Anyone wants my recipe for flourless dark chocolate cake, chantilly cream-filled chocolate eclairs, or Ferrero Rocher cupcakes with salted caramel sauce & Nutella buttercream, hit me up.

I do a mean stuffed chook with vegies too, and corned beef with sweet mustard sauce.  



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eldave1
Posted: March 30th, 2020, 5:44pm Report to Moderator
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Quoted from LC
Wow, I never thought I'd see the guys on SS sharing cooking tips and recipes.

Anyone wants my recipe for flourless dark chocolate cake, chantilly cream-filled chocolate eclairs, or Ferrero Rocher cupcakes with salted caramel sauce & Nutella buttercream, hit me up.

I do a mean stuffed chook with vegies too, and corned beef with sweet mustard sauce.  



I would love it other than the fact that I have put on seven pounds post stay at home already


My Scripts can all be seen here:

http://dlambertson.wix.com/scripts
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